The "Scouting Scouts" Consensus 2024 Draft Ranking List
A double-weighted consensus rankings list based on historical scouting results from tracked scouts, properly weighted to account for the typical drop-off in talent of an NHL draft.
As I’ve discussed previously, one of the best ways to get a broad sense of a draft in the public sphere is through a consensus list. Consensus lists do have the issue though that the output is only as good as the inputs.
Luckily, we have seen from the top-five lists that I have published for the top-end of the draft and the first round, that we have plenty of quality lists to include. With all of the data, I can also weight each of the lists based on a standardized scale, meaning lists from Cam Robinson, Chris Peters, and Sebastian High for example will have a larger impact on the final output than others.
On top of that, I’m taking a page out of Blue Bullet Brad’s book with how he weighs lists in descending order on a logarithmic scale to better mirror the talent drop off in the NHL draft. In short, a player ranked second on one list and sixth on another will score better than a player ranked fourth on those same two lists (before accounting for the scout weighting anyways).
With the fact that I have research on the top-10 of the draft as well of the first round, I have consensus lists based on both. With the same lists inputted for both, the only differences are how the scouts have fared in both those pools, and therefore how they are weighted.
Here’s the top-10 consensus, and I’ll let you digest this before jumping into the full first round. The percentages beside the name give you a sense of how the tiers drop off as you move down the list.
Top-10 Consensus List
Macklin Celebrini (100% of possible points - meaning he was unanimously ranked first overall)
Ivan Demidov (75%)
Artyom Levshunov (54%)
Cayden Lindstrom (53%)
Zeev Buium (51%)
Sam Dickinson (44%)
Zayne Parekh (39%)
Anton Silayev (38%)
Tij Iginla (33%)
Berkly Catton (31%)
There aren’t many surprises with this order, as consensus lists do smooth out the outliers, and it really doesn’t look all that different from many of the other consensus lists. It does seem like the industry expects Anton Silayev to be gone before his number eight rank here, and Zeev Buium isn’t necessarily expected to be gone by slot number five, but the overall order could very closely follow the NHL draft as well.
Moving forward, there isn’t a big difference between the top-10 list and the top-10 in the overall pool, with the top-five slots lining up identically, and then the same four names from six through nine, with Berkly Catton brining up the rear at number 10. Tij Iginla and Anton Silayev each jump two slots as we move from the top-10 list to the first round list, which tells you just how tight that group of four is.
First Round Consensus List
Macklin Celebrini (100%)
Ivan Demidov (74%)
Artyom Levshunov (56%)
Cayden Lindstrom (55%)
Zeev Buium (50%)
Anton Silayev (49%)
Tij Iginla (46%)
Sam Dickinson (46%)
Zayne Parekh (45%)
Berkly Catton (44%)
Konsta Helenius (39%)
Cole Eiserman (39%)
Beckett Sennecke (36%)
Carter Yakemchuk (36%)
Michael Brandsegg-Nygard (30%)
Igor Chernyshov (26%)
Trevor Connelly (25%)
Liam Greentree (25%)
Stian Stolberg (24%)
Michael Hage (22%)
Sacha Boisvert (21%)
Adam Jiricek (20%)
Jett Luchanko (18%)
EJ Emery (14%)
Andrew Basha (13%)
Terik Parascak (13%)
Emil Hemming (13%)
Nikita Artamonov (13%)
Cole Beaudoin (12%)
Ryder Ritchie (11%)
Dominik Badinka (8%)
Teddy Stiga (8%)
The list then expands to the top-32 and I was surprised at how varied some of the lists actually were once we got past the top 14 and 23 names. That’s where we find the first two tier drop offs after the top-three, with Carter Yakemchuk at #14 looking like the end of that big tier, and then Jett Luchanko as the last name before the drop off through the group at the back half of the first round. There is a huge gap from Adam Jiricek at #22 to EJ Emery at #24, and then a very slow drop off from there down out into the 40s, showing that things might be a little more wide open then usual after about pick 20.
The 23-32 range was the most fascinating part for me, and a higher rating from one scout really makes a difference at this stage. Teddy Stiga and Dominik Badinka had a smaller but mightier backing which jumped them up, and it will be interesting to see how they pan out against players like Ryder Ritchie and Cole Beaudoin who were ranked 50% more often, but further down draft lists.
At this point (and I will continue to update as more lists trickle in up to the draft), I have 20 draft lists that have been amalgamated here, only including scouts that I have historical data from between the years of 2013-2020.
Once the NHL draft is completed, I’ll have a piece covering its impact on the consensus rankings, and how it contrasts from what the public sphere scouts had before the draft.